The kernel says here http://git.kernel.org/cgit/linux/kernel/git/torvalds/linux.git/tree/kernel/events/ring_buffer.c?id=7a1dcf6ad#n61 :
* Since the mmap() consumer (userspace) can run on a different CPU:
*
* kernel user
*
* if (LOAD ->data_tail) { LOAD ->data_head
* (A) smp_rmb() (C)
* STORE $data LOAD $data
* smp_wmb() (B) smp_mb() (D)
* STORE ->data_head STORE ->data_tail
* }
*
* Where A pairs with D, and B pairs with C.
*
* In our case (A) is a control dependency that separates the load of
* the ->data_tail and the stores of $data. In case ->data_tail
* indicates there is no room in the buffer to store $data we do not.
*
* D needs to be a full barrier since it separates the data READ
* from the tail WRITE.
*
* For B a WMB is sufficient since it separates two WRITEs, and for C
* an RMB is sufficient since it separates two READs.
*
* See perf_output_begin().
So I'm pretty sure we need a full barrier before writing out data_tail.